COP21: Head Spinning Climate Negotiations

photo by Mark Davis

My two-week visit to Paris for the COP21 climate negotiations left me with a spinning head, a heavy heart, and a belly full of obscenely delicious French patisseries. My head spins with an abundance of words placed there by an army of climate spin-masters from every corner of the globe, every industry, every culture and religion. My heart beats heavy with the knowledge that the voices of climate protesters were tragically diminished by a terrorist-induced state of emergency. And my full, happy belly reminds me that there remain vital and abundant opportunities for joy, even during trying times. Let’s dive into the details...

COP21 opened with a stunning display of political force: the leader of nearly every nation on Earth gathered in-person to declare their support for climate action to an attentive if not skeptical global audience. President Obama delivered a surprisingly passionate and sincere 13-minute powerhouse of a speech, ignoring countless timekeeping bells to challenge the world to take action, declaring, “Nothing will deter us from building the future we want for our children.” This tone was echoed by the leadership of the European Union and United Nations, with France frequently and highly commended for its “masterful” handling of the delicate diplomacy. Even billionaire entrepreneurs joined with a chorus of religious leaders to call for climate action. This unified chorus had a missing voice, however: tragic acts of terrorism caused the French government to demand that hundreds of thousands of climate protesters stay home, allowing the COP21 delegations to chart their own course with limited influence from this critical but crippled public voice.

So, what course did they chart? Faced with a United States congress unwilling to ratify a binding treaty, the delegations at COP21 were forced to pursue a non-binding agreement reliant heavily on political peer-pressure. Some of the language gives me hope. Some of it looks painfully inadequate. Will it work? I have no idea, but for the sake of discussion I will at share my opinions about the major points as I see them...

• Parties agreed to hold global average temperatures “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursu[e] efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” While insufficient, this clever wording was better than I expected, particularly considering their admission that “much greater emissions reduction efforts will be required…” to meet those targets. I was also pleasantly surprised to watch the sizeable press corps chase down and prod any available scientist for information about the ultimate feasibility of a 1.5°C target. Hopefully this leads to significant new journalistic and scientific effort in that direction.

• The agreement encourages nations to “reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible,” seeking greenhouse gas neutrality “in the second half of this century.” I believe that this language will simply give permission for all nations to replace “as soon as possible” with “as soon as it is politically and economically painless.” Furthermore, “in the second half of this century” is not nearly soon enough to stay below 1.5°C, let alone 2°C, without massive amounts of unproven and potentially physically impossible carbon sequestration.

• Quite a bit of hope seems to be placed in a non-binding “ratchet mechanism” that encourages nations to improve upon their current decarbonization goals every five years. This mechanism shifts the basis of civilizational transformation from a political push to a free-market technological waiting game. If COP21 doesn’t generate the necessary “market signal,” there is little else to drive meaningful CO2 belt-tightening in the future.

When the COP21 agreement was finally adopted, a thunderous roar emerged from the large plenary hall, followed by images of tears, hugs and hands clasped in celebration. These were not simply bureaucrats checking boxes for their fossil fueled masters. I suspect they knew that we have a challenging road ahead, but they paused to joyfully celebrate this small victory filled with huge, if insufficient, accomplishments. It is a testament to the profound challenge presented by climate change that a diplomatic event as monumental and celebrity-studded as COP21 would present such a humble step in the necessary path towards transformation. It is now time for us all to engage our hearts, minds, and bodies to bring our dear humanity the rest of the way home.

Mark Dixon is is an award-winning filmmaker, activist, and public speaker exploring the frontiers of social change on a finite planet. He attended the COP21 climate conference hosted by the United Nations in Paris, France during December 2015. Mark’s COP21 citizen journalist reports can be found at: https://markatcop21.wordpress.com/ .

#article